Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 58.904401 65.764429 73.597534 83.319832 95.231944 109.585257 1.285672e+02
2025-01-19 47.496436 55.621146 65.669698 79.369346 98.182308 124.179504 1.650723e+02
2025-01-26 44.008333 53.442077 65.862132 84.168162 112.000428 155.969679 2.397443e+02
2025-02-02 41.682609 52.102075 66.536554 89.280361 127.225991 195.721617 3.581235e+02
2025-02-09 38.854501 49.566124 64.957686 90.448749 136.208052 228.765823 5.009154e+02
2025-02-16 36.086082 46.728909 62.443912 89.485757 140.961346 255.758878 6.731063e+02
2025-02-23 33.723816 44.209065 60.044722 88.193028 144.609490 282.434275 9.123319e+02
2025-03-02 31.501464 41.680910 57.321776 85.834773 145.393327 302.560655 1.201669e+03
2025-03-09 29.761000 39.731942 55.310787 84.427625 147.850484 329.573976 1.708778e+03
2025-03-16 27.743805 37.209349 52.126702 80.372765 143.289729 332.002327 2.052056e+03
2025-03-23 27.331197 37.149790 53.020660 84.264879 158.814255 418.546580 5.806183e+03
2025-03-30 26.274849 35.986049 51.912616 83.987343 163.769962 470.404776 1.688395e+04
2025-04-06 24.969279 34.393959 50.021320 82.047344 164.357208 507.654329 1.093840e+05
2025-04-13 23.477193 32.424147 47.335080 78.143064 158.561200 507.783911 1.064902e+07
2025-04-20 23.329711 32.641841 48.557924 82.821615 179.771658 708.857480 NaN
2025-04-27 23.194752 32.863405 49.801798 87.803249 204.925464 1055.610516 NaN
2025-05-04 22.597819 32.256808 49.429709 88.941203 217.553566 1375.698610 NaN
2025-05-11 21.816427 31.285914 48.277935 88.003309 222.004213 1635.739569 NaN
2025-05-18 21.059614 30.318362 47.062102 86.744031 224.817866 1921.491712 NaN
2025-05-25 20.247990 29.217077 45.512070 84.446086 222.493929 2098.137755 NaN
2025-06-01 19.584348 28.347513 44.368336 83.074482 223.938302 2449.109510 NaN
2025-06-08 18.701092 27.056064 42.315882 79.120172 212.519459 2268.830090 NaN
2025-06-15 18.629489 27.200727 43.148550 82.915826 239.182630 4531.882318 NaN